I had a very interesting conversation today at work about poker. There are so many people out there that suggest or truly believe that there isn’t any skill involved in poker…just dumb luck. I invite everyone who believes this to come play a fews sessions of poker at my house, and we’ll see how much skill it takes to win!
I read an interesting article today and I couldn’t give a better argument if I tried, so I’ll just give a few of the main points from the article and let you read the whole thing if you are interested.
The biggest distinction between poker and gambling is that in pretty much all gambling, you are playing against the house.
In poker, the house has no interest in the outcome, and is an impartial provider of services-for-a-fee, a forum for the players to compete equally against each other.
Another major difference between poker and gambling is that the rules of poker accord every player a statistically equal chance to win, but the rules of gambling games all give the house a definite advantage against the player, which over time is inexorable and inevitable. In essence, poker is fair, gambling is not.
Poker is a game of skill. It is a contest of abilities, more akin to bridge or chess than it is to gambling, in that more-talented players will prevail against less-talented players. Chance can and will affect short-term results, but skill separates winners from losers over time.
You?ll never get to play a pickup game against Michael Jordan or a round of golf against Tiger, or tear up the track against Matt Kenseth, but you can plop your buy-in down and take on Doyle Brunson or Howard Lederer.
Nick Momrik 
Anything beyond knowing the basic rules of the game is luck. Any hand can be cracked, no matter how well you play it. In my opion, any game that involves any luck at all, is all luck. You can get busted from a tournament from a single unlucky hand. No matter how well you played, or how good you are. One unlucky moment, you are gone. If you can get busted from one unlucky hand, then all of poker might as well be considered luck. There are no “lucky” shots in basketball, or “lucky” hits in baseball, etc… All those other sports are based on skill. sdf
LikeLike
Luck is as much a part of life as gravity and sunlight. A simple and undeniable example is birth. A person cannot control how they’re born, what family they’re born into, and what their physical and mental attributes are. A person born into a rich or poor family is lucky and unlucky, respectively. With that said, a person who is on the receiving end of a bad beat when they have the best of it could be deemed unlucky by the majority. The mathematician will tell you that this is variance rearing it’s ugly head. The superstitious person will tell you that you shouldn’t have stacked your chips in this manner and you were in the wrong chair and this particular dealer is killing the table and what have you. The spiritual person will tell you that you deserved it because you did something previously and it’s just karma rolling around (sounds kind of like variance). Everybody’s got their explanation. Pick a number and get in line.
Poker players say that poker is about the long run… How long is that? Truth is, that’s as long as the game of poker is played. And as long as you’re alive playing the game. Us people, though, we come in during those times when the numbers go either way. Imagine one guy sitting at a table and he’s been playing long hours on end. He’s been getting all the right cards and the numbers have been working out “the way they should”. Now, he leaves and the next Joe takes his seat. Right off the bat he gets a bad beat. Whoa, what happend? That seat was hot, right? Well, I guess the other player was just lucky and this new guy must be the personification of bad luck. What changed? Besides the players, nothing. The numbers all add up in the end, but what was different was the agents (people) of those statistical situations. People are variables in the equation, only, we feel. It’s like that futuristic movie with a Utopian society where nobody feels emotion (what was the name?). Picture those folks playing poker and taking beats left, right, and centre. It wouldn’t phase them one bit; tilt wouldn’t exist.
There’s a saying that “luck is probability made personal.” You’re damn right it’s personal! “Why me” is a common cry that comes to mind. Cold, hard numbers don’t have feelings. Statistics aren’t favouritist towards certain people. Neither is gravity, except for, maybe, SUPERMAN. The arguments for and against luck are parallel to the arguments for and against God’s existence. How can you prove it, or disprove it? Anecdotal evidence isn’t going to cut it. You could know some poor guy as the unluckiest schmuck, however, he simply may be making all the wrong moves – that usually coincides with “at the wrong times. Luck is not tangible. You only feel it i.e., it’s in our heads.
My best guess at luck is that it’s a set, string, or series of variables that cumulate in and upto an event. Recall the time(s) you attended or cancelled a plan and were fortunate or unforunate enough to face or avoid some sort of incident, be it a personal (drama with an ex), financial (losing your wallet), legal (getting into a fight and being arrested), or a health (binge drinking and hung over all day) scenario… Yup, we’ve all been there. Somewhere there, at least.
Poker is a game of skill in which there is a greater element of chance than in other games of skill where luck is less of a deciding factor. Think of pool (billiards). Every single break of the rack results in a random dispersing of the balls. Yes, a pro could theoretically pocket at least one ball every single time with the proper technique, but there’s that chance that she or he might not. And there is no control over how the balls are spread across the table.
The point is that luck is an integral part of, not only poker, but LIFE itself.
Good luck at the tables!
LikeLike
There is one thing which is contradicting the affirmation poker is a game of skill:
each long run is made by short runs; if a pro got unlucky in the short run he can ge unlucky in the long run too; there is no better prove a pro player is a skilled player but the long run luck itself, which then remove the skill.
Mathematics works the same, every player get same cards as well, but there is a difference in getting the right cards at the right time or getting the right cards in the wrong moment—you might miss AA for about 2 hours then when you finally got it the only guy which did not preflop fold is the BB guy which will fold any bet you put; you loose allin with trips against flush then you win 2 allins with trips against weaker cards but the amount of money you win last 2 times will be much less then the allin you was loosing; this is making the affirmation that all players got the same luck irrelevant.
If you have a casino and want to make as many as possible players play the game the only way you can do this is by saying that poker is a game of skill and luck; if you remove 1 from the ecuation you half the number of players; it looks like a convenient way to fool all people play the game; some say casinos don’t win any money from poker…not if they have their (undetected) players on the tables…which let much space for interpretation then…making poker even worst (a made up game), and I observed one interesting thing about it (speaking about the honestity of poker houses): if you will try to make as many preflop allins as possible with good cards, if you loose go to higher stakes, you loose go to even higher stakes (to cover the losses and earn money, because mathematical theory says sooner or later you must win one allin) you might have the surprise loosing 20 allins one by one with AKs suited, AAs, QQs etc, try it online for example.
If I usually play X$ tables I make about 4-6 more money in about 2-3 weeks, playing 2-3 hours daily; then ALWAYS will have a bad day (maximum 2 days) then I will loose 3-4-6x money on the table with trips against trips, flush against stronger flush, and so on, 6 8 times in a row; this way the whole longrun winnings go away, you might be a longrun good player but the shortrun sessions are enough to f* your longrun winnings, this sounds more like “let’s get some money from that guy now, he had enough” then a normal thing.
LikeLike
60% luck, 40% skill. It’s still mostly luck, since the long term is too long for anyone to experience. In events like the WSOP, the pro’s are the ones who can outplay people, be card dead and still take down pots, while having a decent run of luck. The amateurs like Yang, Gold, and Moneymaker have to rely on mainly luck.
LikeLike
I kind a love poker, but still I have to say that I think poker is more luck than skill. If two equally talented players play against each others, the luckier will win – always. And this luck zone is much wider than in sports etc. Like if you know the basic strategies (there isn’t such complicated strategies in poker) and your opponent also knows those, then luck is quite a big factor.
I ones saw online player who made all-inn’s something like 15 – 25 minutes straight (every hand) and won something like 85 % of those hands. But that was miracle, that’s not why I think poker is more luck than skill.
LikeLike
I insist that poker is more about skills than luck.
First, it is not only about knowing the basic rules. It is also about ability to read people’s minds through their gestures, their patterns of betting…..etc.
Second, if luck plays a bigger role than skills, how could you explain the consistent performance of poker Hall of Famers like Doyle, Chan, Stu etc ???. Doyle has been playing poker for over 50 years and still keeps winning.
A lot of these veterans play pokers as their only career.
Johnny Chan got wife and kids in Las Vegas and all he does is playing pokers. There is no way anyone can get lucky for many many years. This emperical evidence shows that skills play a bigger role than luck in Poker.
LikeLike
Joe said “This emperical evidence shows that skills play a bigger role than luck in Poker”
When it is a beginner player against an experienced player it is about skill but when there are two good poker players the game turn to be about luck
I am talking about online poker
Chan and other champs are not online poker champs I guess and there might be different rules
But if you play poker 4 many years you usually make money mostly because the newer players and they are a lot!
It’s not like you train on this, I train on this and the most skilled player here win, but it is more like comparing to golf or whatever imagine you are an average player and I just played this game yesterday for the first time..of course you will win but it is not about skill;
experienced player against unexperienced player is not really a skill game
LikeLike
in fact: “When it is a beginner player against an experienced player it is about skill” should be “When it is a beginner player against an experienced player it looks to be about skill”
LikeLike
I have to say after playing online for a year and playing general poker for 4 years that poker is 60% luck and 40% skill for most players until they reach the professional stage where the skill level matters less since all other players are professionals and all play with odds.
Also I would say that to win the WSOP you would need more luck than skill, but to make the money consistently in every 2-3 WSOP would take skill. I would say small tournaments require more skill to win than 7k+ entrants one.
LikeLike
To me poker depends more on luck than skill.
The poker professionists earn money from the less experienced.
LikeLike
This “snippet” from the article is quite hilarious, they prove no point at all.
For example, replace the term “poker” with “coin flipping” into the article. The author would make the point that if a casino provided a means for “coin flipping” and for participants to bet on the outcome that it was skill since each player has the same chance of winning.
Yet in reality, a coin flip is 100% luck and no skill, so the author makes no point at all.
LikeLike
Yes, a coin flips outcome is completely random. The point is that if you were flipping coins against a casino they would only pay you something like .9 to 1 in other words you’d put down 10$ on heads and when you win they pay you 9$. So yes you can win but if you play long enough say 10000 flips the head verses tail ratio is going to be around 5,000 5,000 which means that you,ve wagered 100,000 and won 90,000 for a net loss of 10,000. Does that mean the casino got lucky against you? No. The casino had a mathematical edge. All casino games are set up with a form of this edge against you.
In poker the casino doesnt care who wins because the money comes from the players. When you win it comes out of another players pocket. The casino takes a small portion of the pot which is called a “rake”. so essentially you’er just renting the seat from them. In poker you can be the “HOUSE” by making common sense decisions when others are making bad decisions. Or really good decisions when others are making good decisions. If you understand odds you would know how much you can call when your on the draw and still make money overtime. conversely if your the bettor you make the odds incorrect for draws and people will still call. They do get lucky a certain percentage of the time but when they lose you make that money back plus more when you bet correctly. This is just the most simple example of how poker does require skill. We all get the same cards over time. It becomes a waging war after that. Can you really say that people cannot make decisions that are essentially like giving money away at the table. I know they do. I have been beating poker for 3 years now. I have friends that have been beating the game for years. I know i make money just from the stupid stuff people do. Some people expose there cards every hand. I know it is a luck game but skill is the reason I have made money overtime. Poker is without a doubt a skill game. Tell me how there are professional poker players and no professional roulette players. Tell me ive been lucky for three years. Tell my friends they are lucky. Look at a player like Negreneaus winnings year in and year out. Tell me how You see a lot of the same players at final tables.
LikeLike
Im about sick of this game. Ill be 100 percent honest with you. I am a good poker player, and I get sucked out on more than Ron Jeremy. Tonight, For instance, I had ace king, vs. Ace six, got beat…Figuring I am good 2 out of 3 times with ace king, (verse an ace with a lower kicker) the next time I got it, I ended up pre flop all in vs ace 7 (which was beautiful a play by my opponent, who of course claimed it wasnt luck to hit 2 running spades)…Lost again. Poker is only a skill game to an extent, the instinct of knowing when you should fold, and when you shouldnt. And that is a skill, but After that, bullshit, there is no skill involved. Professional poker players are LUCKY. Lucky enough to have there opponents miss their draws, or lucky enough to hit there draws. You have no control over what cards hit the table. When I play a sport (not poker, vs a fat guy who is thinking hey i might hit a 9 for this gutshot straight draw, which for some odd reason seems to crack me everytime) I am in total control, and I guess the only scenario that could compare poker, to a sport like baseball. Is if every once in awhile a fuckin bald eagle ran into the short stops head and knocked him over to score the game winning run for opposing teams, but that doesn’t happen. There’s no odds on booting a groundball. It’s up to the players’ ABILITY to make or not make a play. When I get beat like that, so be it. It was in my control. I could have won, but I didnt perform. When I am playing someone heads up, and I have ace king, vs ace shit….Your skill doesn’t mean shit when the chips are in the middle, its up to the cards that fall.
LikeLike
in poker you can win with just luck (Gold, Moneymaker)
but with just skill you can’t…
LikeLike
I love these mororns, oh its skill its skill… what do u say when u cant even make a fucking pair for 5 hours straight???
What the fuck do you call that? And beeing beat on fucking rivers all the time? Is that fucking skill?
Poker is a fucking luck game, the fucking hand u get defines what u can do and what u cant… is that skill ??? omfg
LikeLike
What a dumbo – you just defeated your own argument in the last paragraph;-
“Youll never get to play a pickup game against Michael Jordan or a round of golf against Tiger, or tear up the track against Matt Kenseth,”
Of course not because they are highly skilled experts. Noone could pick up a golf club and win against a top player.
“but you can plop your buy-in down and take on Doyle Brunson or Howard Lederer.”
Yes – because there is a lot of luck in playing poker and even a beginner can beat a pro poker player.
LikeLike
After 5 1/2 years of this thread, how many people who have contributed, still have hopes and dreams of that big tourney win? 99% of people imo after 12 months playing all have the same skill level, so poker is 100% luck IMO, some people are lucky, some are not. And be honest 99% of us lose long term. Its gambling guys, PERIOD. Hae a nice day…
LikeLike
Of course it involve luck. Isn’t calling a bet with a draw gambling hoping to complete it?
LikeLike
I think its 30% skill 70% luck. Sure you can decide your hands pre flop in relation to table position, bets and players then react on the flop, turn river but if the luck isnt there then u lose. You can play the hand perfect and still lose. Where else do you really see that. I doubt the stats too. I counted on my poker tracker… ur meant to hit your flush draw 35% from flop to river… mine is less than 10%. Yet i see people hit theres all the time.
Today i was in a tourny $26 buy in. Was in top 25 when i was raised to 3 times the BB, i was in the BB with 66. Now the player that raised was hyper aggressive and super loose he was winning every hand no matter the cards. I decide to call to hit my 1/7 6 and hopefully cripple this joker. Well the flop comes 9s 9d 2s.. i check and he bets the pot, i decide to check raise here.. sure a tight player i may fold putting him on a real hand. He re raises me all in… if he had a 9 i dont think he bets it even if there is a flush draw. I call and he shows Qs 10h total air yet he manages to hit runner runner spade. I stayed to watch and he was beating aces with j10… just lucky.
some people are lucky and others are not.. everyone says skill will win through… im up slightly but i just dont see correct plays being rewarded.
LikeLike
I would say Omaha is approx. 70% luck and 30% skill… HolDUM however is 80% DUM LUCK. The more cards that are involved in the type of poker game = the more skill that is involved to a certain degree. I would even say that the amount of players involved matters allot. I like big Hold’em tables when I play it… most people though want to make it more of a game of luck and not of reading your opponents (examples of this are the popularity of smaller tables and online holDUM). I have just recently invented the next step in the derogation of poker. The game is called Texas Double DUM. Instead of getting 2 hole cards you only get 1! There is a normal burn and then a flop and then a burn and a Double turn and the final burn and the river. The best 5 out of 7 wins! This game is 95% luck. Just give it a few decades.. .it will be the poker game of choice amongst the poker “elites”.
LikeLike
Stu Ungar is regarded as the best poker player in history. Even he died broke. Did his luck run out or his skill run out, you be the judge.
LikeLike
Donk, Ungar died broke cause he was a crack head and sports bet like a nutjob.
He won WSOP’s by calling down bluff’s with 10 high.
Not to mention he like NEVER lost gin.
… Factless assumption, go you.
LikeLike